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Tasmania Berlin vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Tasmania Berlin
Tasmania Berlin
CANC
13:00
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
3/14/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 23Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tasmania Berlin67%
×Draw18%
Victoria Seelow16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tasmania Berlin
2.45
Victoria Seelow
1.10

Tasmania Berlin creates 123% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tasmania Berlin
2.12
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

Tasmania Berlin
1.32
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

Tasmania Berlin+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tasmania Berlin ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Tasmania Berlin or draw
84%
Tasmania Berlin or Victoria Seelow
82%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
33%

Winning margin

Tasmania Berlin wins by 2+
44%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tasmania Berlin 1+ goals
91%
Tasmania Berlin 2+ goals
70%
Tasmania Berlin 3+ goals
44%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
67%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
30%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tasmania Berlin (draw refunded)
81%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tasmania Berlin at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tasmania Berlin attack 2.12 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.45

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Tasmania Berlin defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Tasmania Berlin scores more
67%
level
18%
Victoria Seelow scores more
16%

Tasmania Berlin at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Tasmania Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania Berlin vs Victoria Seelow — Match Preview

Tasmania Berlin face Victoria Seelow on March 14, 2021 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tasmania Berlin host Victoria Seelow at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.