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Victoria Seelow vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
FT
2 – 2
Stern
Stern
8/15/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Seelow27%
×Draw22%
Stern51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Seelow
1.43
Stern
2.02

Stern creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

creates per match

Victoria Seelow
1.10
Stern
1.29

allows per match

Victoria Seelow
2.76
Stern
1.76

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw
49%
Victoria Seelow or Stern
78%
Draw or Stern
73%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
12%
Stern wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
76%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
42%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
17%
Stern 1+ goals
87%
Stern 2+ goals
60%
Stern 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
35%
Stern (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stern attack 1.29 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more
27%
level
22%
Stern scores more
51%

Stern at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Seelow vs Stern

Victoria Seelow and Stern drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow in Seelow.