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Stern vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
CANC
12:00
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
1/31/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 17Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern48%
×Draw22%
Victoria Seelow30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.94
Victoria Seelow
1.50

Stern creates 29% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Stern or draw
70%
Stern or Victoria Seelow
78%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
52%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
27%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
86%
Stern 2+ goals
58%
Stern 3+ goals
30%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
78%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
44%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
61%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.94

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stern scores more
48%
level
22%
Victoria Seelow scores more
30%

Stern at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stern face Victoria Seelow (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Stern hosting Victoria Seelow. Match starts January 31, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Stern host Victoria Seelow at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.