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Victoria Seelow vs MSV Neuruppin — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
MSV Neuruppin
MSV Neuruppin
3/30/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 20EWE Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Seelow33%
×Draw22%
MSV Neuruppin45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Seelow
1.64
MSV Neuruppin
1.92

MSV Neuruppin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

creates per match

Victoria Seelow
1.10
MSV Neuruppin
1.09

allows per match

Victoria Seelow
2.76
MSV Neuruppin
2.18

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par
MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

MSV Neuruppin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw
55%
Victoria Seelow or MSV Neuruppin
78%
Draw or MSV Neuruppin
67%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
16%
MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
81%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
49%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
23%
MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals
85%
MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals
57%
MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
43%
MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

MSV Neuruppin away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + MSV Neuruppin defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.64

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.09 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more
33%
level
22%
MSV Neuruppin scores more
45%

MSV Neuruppin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "MSV Neuruppin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Seelow vs MSV Neuruppin

MSV Neuruppin beat Victoria Seelow 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on March 30, 2022.

The match was played at EWE Sportplatz in Seelow.