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MSV Neuruppin vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

MSV Neuruppin
MSV Neuruppin
FT
4 – 0
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
8/6/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

MSV Neuruppin57%
×Draw21%
Victoria Seelow22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MSV Neuruppin
2.04
Victoria Seelow
1.18

MSV Neuruppin creates 73% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 18 away

creates per match

MSV Neuruppin
1.31
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

MSV Neuruppin
1.47
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

MSV Neuruppin+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MSV Neuruppin ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

MSV Neuruppin or draw
78%
MSV Neuruppin or Victoria Seelow
79%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
43%

Winning margin

MSV Neuruppin wins by 2+
34%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

MSV Neuruppin 1+ goals
87%
MSV Neuruppin 2+ goals
60%
MSV Neuruppin 3+ goals
33%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
69%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
33%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

MSV Neuruppin (draw refunded)
72%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MSV Neuruppin at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MSV Neuruppin attack 1.31 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.04

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + MSV Neuruppin defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

MSV Neuruppin scores more
57%
level
21%
Victoria Seelow scores more
22%

MSV Neuruppin at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "MSV Neuruppin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: MSV Neuruppin 4–0 Victoria Seelow

MSV Neuruppin beat Victoria Seelow 4-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Neuruppin.