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Victoria Seelow vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
4/3/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 22Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Seelow21%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Seelow
1.27
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.25

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 77% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 76 away

creates per match

Victoria Seelow
1.10
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.75

allows per match

Victoria Seelow
2.76
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.43

finishing

Victoria Seelow+0.00on par
Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Seelow ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Victoria Seelow or draw
41%
Victoria Seelow or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
80%
Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
79%

Winning margin

Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
8%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
72%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
36%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
14%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
89%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
65%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
26%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Seelow at home — creates 1.10, concedes 2.76 · 21 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Seelow attack 1.10 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Victoria Seelow scores more
21%
level
20%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
59%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Seelow vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf

Eintracht Mahlsdorf beat Victoria Seelow 6-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Sparkassenarena Stadt Seelow in Seelow.