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Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
FT
1 – 2
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
8/18/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 3Kunstrasenplatz Am Rosenhag KR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf65%
×Draw18%
Victoria Seelow16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.40
Victoria Seelow
1.12

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 114% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.03
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.35
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw
84%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf or Victoria Seelow
82%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
35%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
43%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
91%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
69%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
42%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
67%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
31%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
80%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.40

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
65%
level
18%
Victoria Seelow scores more
16%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Victoria Seelow

Victoria Seelow beat Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Am Rosenhag KR in Berlin.