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Victoria Rosport vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach — National Division 2018

Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
2/23/2020National DivisionNational Division · Round 14Party-Rent-Arena (Rousport (Rosport))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Victoria Rosport52%
×Draw22%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Rosport
2.04
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.42

Victoria Rosport creates 44% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 8 away

creates per match

Victoria Rosport
1.34
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.13

allows per match

Victoria Rosport
1.71
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
2.75

finishing

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par
Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Rosport ↓

Blue Boys Muhlenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Victoria Rosport or draw
73%
Victoria Rosport or Blue Boys Muhlenbach
78%
Draw or Blue Boys Muhlenbach
48%

Winning margin

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
30%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
87%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
60%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
33%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals
76%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals
41%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
66%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Rosport at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.71 · 109 matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Rosport attack 1.34 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.13 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Victoria Rosport scores more
52%
level
22%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more
27%

Victoria Rosport at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Rosport vs Blue Boys Muhlenbach

Victoria Rosport beat Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2-1 in National Division on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Party-Rent-Arena (Rousport (Rosport)).