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Blue Boys Muhlenbach vs Victoria Rosport — National Division 2018

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
Blue Boys Muhlenbach
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
8/11/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 2Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Blue Boys Muhlenbach38%
×Draw24%
Victoria Rosport39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.57
Victoria Rosport
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 111 away

creates per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.22
Victoria Rosport
1.31

allows per match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach
1.89
Victoria Rosport
1.93

finishing

Blue Boys Muhlenbach+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Boys Muhlenbach ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Blue Boys Muhlenbach or draw
61%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach or Victoria Rosport
76%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
62%

Winning margin

Blue Boys Muhlenbach wins by 2+
18%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Blue Boys Muhlenbach 1+ goals
79%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 2+ goals
46%
Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3+ goals
21%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
80%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
47%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Blue Boys Muhlenbach (draw refunded)
49%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Boys Muhlenbach at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Boys Muhlenbach attack 1.22 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.57

Victoria Rosport attack 1.31 + Blue Boys Muhlenbach defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blue Boys Muhlenbach scores more
38%
level
24%
Victoria Rosport scores more
39%

Victoria Rosport at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Blue Boys Muhlenbach 0–3 Victoria Rosport

Victoria Rosport beat Blue Boys Muhlenbach 3-0 in National Division on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mathias Mamer (Luxembourg).