Victoria Rosport 1–1 Bettembourg: Result & Stats

Victoria Rosport

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bettembourg

9/29/2024

National Division · Round 9Party-Rent-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Victoria Rosport45%

×Draw24%

Bettembourg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Victoria RosportExpected goals in this matchBettembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.36

Victoria Rosport

1.66

Bettembourg

1.36

Victoria Rosport creates 22% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 16 away

1.32

creates per match

1.00

1.72

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Victoria Rosport

1.32

Bettembourg

1.00

allows per match

Victoria Rosport

1.72

Bettembourg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Bettembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Rosport ↓

Bettembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Victoria Rosport or draw

68%

Victoria Rosport or Bettembourg

76%

Draw or Bettembourg

55%

Winning margin

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+

23%

Bettembourg wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals

81%

Victoria Rosport 2+ goals

49%

Victoria Rosport 3+ goals

23%

Bettembourg 1+ goals

74%

Bettembourg 2+ goals

39%

Bettembourg 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)

59%

Bettembourg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Rosport at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.72 · 111 matches

Bettembourg away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Rosport attack 1.32 + Bettembourg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bettembourg attack 1.00 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Victoria Rosport scores more

45%

level

24%

Bettembourg scores more

32%

Victoria Rosport at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff