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Bettembourg vs Victoria Rosport — National Division 2018

Bettembourg
Bettembourg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
4/6/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 23Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg34%
×Draw24%
Victoria Rosport42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.44
Victoria Rosport
1.62

Victoria Rosport creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 112 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
0.94
Victoria Rosport
1.30

allows per match

Bettembourg
1.94
Victoria Rosport
1.93

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
58%
Bettembourg or Victoria Rosport
76%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
66%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
16%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
76%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
42%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
18%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
80%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
48%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
45%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.44

Victoria Rosport attack 1.30 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bettembourg scores more
34%
level
24%
Victoria Rosport scores more
42%

Victoria Rosport at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Victoria Rosport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bettembourg vs Victoria Rosport

Victoria Rosport beat Bettembourg 2-1 in National Division on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Bettembourg.