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Victoria Rosport vs AS Jeunesse Esch — National Division 2018

Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
3/30/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 22Party-Rent-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Victoria Rosport35%
×Draw25%
AS Jeunesse Esch41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Rosport
1.39
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Victoria Rosport
1.32
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.31

allows per match

Victoria Rosport
1.72
AS Jeunesse Esch
1.45

finishing

Victoria Rosport+0.00on par
AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Rosport ↓

AS Jeunesse Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Victoria Rosport or draw
59%
Victoria Rosport or AS Jeunesse Esch
75%
Draw or AS Jeunesse Esch
65%

Winning margin

Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
16%
AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
75%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
40%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
16%
AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
78%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
45%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
46%
AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Rosport at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.72 · 111 matches

AS Jeunesse Esch away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.45 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Rosport attack 1.32 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.31 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Victoria Rosport scores more
35%
level
25%
AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
41%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Victoria Rosport 1–1 AS Jeunesse Esch

Victoria Rosport and AS Jeunesse Esch drew 1-1 in National Division on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Party-Rent-Arena in Rosport.