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AS Jeunesse Esch vs Victoria Rosport — National Division 2018

AS Jeunesse Esch
AS Jeunesse Esch
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Rosport
Victoria Rosport
5/18/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 29Stade de la Frontière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

AS Jeunesse Esch49%
×Draw23%
Victoria Rosport28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.77
Victoria Rosport
1.27

AS Jeunesse Esch creates 39% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 112 away

creates per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.62
Victoria Rosport
1.30

allows per match

AS Jeunesse Esch
1.23
Victoria Rosport
1.93

finishing

AS Jeunesse Esch+0.00on par
Victoria Rosport+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Jeunesse Esch ↓

Victoria Rosport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AS Jeunesse Esch or draw
72%
AS Jeunesse Esch or Victoria Rosport
77%
Draw or Victoria Rosport
51%

Winning margin

AS Jeunesse Esch wins by 2+
27%
Victoria Rosport wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Jeunesse Esch 1+ goals
83%
AS Jeunesse Esch 2+ goals
53%
AS Jeunesse Esch 3+ goals
26%
Victoria Rosport 1+ goals
72%
Victoria Rosport 2+ goals
36%
Victoria Rosport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AS Jeunesse Esch (draw refunded)
64%
Victoria Rosport (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Jeunesse Esch at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

Victoria Rosport away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Jeunesse Esch attack 1.62 + Victoria Rosport defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Victoria Rosport attack 1.30 + AS Jeunesse Esch defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AS Jeunesse Esch scores more
49%
level
23%
Victoria Rosport scores more
28%

AS Jeunesse Esch at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AS Jeunesse Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Jeunesse Esch vs Victoria Rosport

Victoria Rosport beat AS Jeunesse Esch 2-0 in National Division on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Frontière in Esch-sur-Alzette.