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Victoria Highlanders vs Calgary Foothills — USL League Two 2018

Victoria Highlanders
Victoria Highlanders
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
6/22/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1University of Victoria Centennial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Victoria Highlanders20%
×Draw18%
Calgary Foothills62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Highlanders
1.50
Calgary Foothills
2.67

Calgary Foothills creates 78% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Victoria Highlanders
1.67
Calgary Foothills
2.67

allows per match

Victoria Highlanders
2.67
Calgary Foothills
1.33

finishing

Victoria Highlanders+0.00on par
Calgary Foothills+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Highlanders ↓

Calgary Foothills →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Victoria Highlanders or draw
38%
Victoria Highlanders or Calgary Foothills
82%
Draw or Calgary Foothills
80%

Winning margin

Victoria Highlanders wins by 2+
9%
Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Victoria Highlanders 1+ goals
78%
Victoria Highlanders 2+ goals
44%
Victoria Highlanders 3+ goals
19%
Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
93%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
74%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Victoria Highlanders (draw refunded)
25%
Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Highlanders at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Calgary Foothills away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Highlanders attack 1.67 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Calgary Foothills attack 2.67 + Victoria Highlanders defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Victoria Highlanders scores more
20%
level
18%
Calgary Foothills scores more
62%

Calgary Foothills at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Victoria Highlanders 1–4 Calgary Foothills

Calgary Foothills beat Victoria Highlanders 4-1 in USL League Two on June 22, 2019.

The match was played at University of Victoria Centennial Stadium.