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Calgary Foothills vs Victoria Highlanders — USL League Two 2018

Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Victoria Highlanders
Victoria Highlanders
7/13/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 16Mount Royal University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Calgary Foothills52%
×Draw22%
Victoria Highlanders26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Foothills
1.90
Victoria Highlanders
1.28

Calgary Foothills creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Calgary Foothills
2.00
Victoria Highlanders
1.40

allows per match

Calgary Foothills
1.17
Victoria Highlanders
1.80

finishing

Calgary Foothills+0.00on par
Victoria Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Foothills ↓

Victoria Highlanders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Calgary Foothills or draw
74%
Calgary Foothills or Victoria Highlanders
78%
Draw or Victoria Highlanders
48%

Winning margin

Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
29%
Victoria Highlanders wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
85%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
56%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
29%
Victoria Highlanders 1+ goals
72%
Victoria Highlanders 2+ goals
37%
Victoria Highlanders 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
67%
Victoria Highlanders (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Foothills at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Victoria Highlanders away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Foothills attack 2.00 + Victoria Highlanders defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Victoria Highlanders attack 1.40 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Calgary Foothills scores more
52%
level
22%
Victoria Highlanders scores more
26%

Calgary Foothills at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Calgary Foothills 3–2 Victoria Highlanders

Calgary Foothills beat Victoria Highlanders 3-2 in USL League Two on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Mount Royal University.