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Victoria Clarholz vs TuS Haltern — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
CANC
13:00
TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
6/20/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 42Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Victoria Clarholz50%
×Draw22%
TuS Haltern28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.96
TuS Haltern
1.44

Victoria Clarholz creates 36% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 20 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
TuS Haltern
1.40

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
TuS Haltern
2.35

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
TuS Haltern+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

TuS Haltern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
72%
Victoria Clarholz or TuS Haltern
78%
Draw or TuS Haltern
50%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
28%
TuS Haltern wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
86%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
58%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
31%
TuS Haltern 1+ goals
76%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
42%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
64%
TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

TuS Haltern away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + TuS Haltern defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.96

TuS Haltern attack 1.40 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
50%
level
22%
TuS Haltern scores more
28%

Victoria Clarholz at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Victoria Clarholz host TuS Haltern

June 20, 2021: Victoria Clarholz take on TuS Haltern in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Victoria Clarholz host TuS Haltern at Holzhofstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.