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TuS Haltern vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

TuS Haltern
TuS Haltern
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
4/30/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - Relegation Round - 5Stauseekampfbahn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TuS Haltern29%
×Draw24%
Victoria Clarholz47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS Haltern
1.27
Victoria Clarholz
1.69

Victoria Clarholz creates 33% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 89 away

creates per match

TuS Haltern
0.75
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

TuS Haltern
2.10
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

TuS Haltern+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS Haltern ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

TuS Haltern or draw
53%
TuS Haltern or Victoria Clarholz
76%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
71%

Winning margin

TuS Haltern wins by 2+
12%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

TuS Haltern 1+ goals
72%
TuS Haltern 2+ goals
36%
TuS Haltern 3+ goals
14%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
82%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
50%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

TuS Haltern (draw refunded)
38%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS Haltern at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS Haltern attack 0.75 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + TuS Haltern defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

TuS Haltern scores more
29%
level
24%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
47%

Victoria Clarholz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: TuS Haltern 1–1 Victoria Clarholz

TuS Haltern and Victoria Clarholz drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stauseekampfbahn in Haltern am See.