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Victoria Clarholz vs Sportfreunde Lotte — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
3/19/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 23Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Victoria Clarholz32%
×Draw23%
Sportfreunde Lotte45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.44
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.74

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 21% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 34 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Sportfreunde Lotte
2.00

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Sportfreunde Lotte
1.32

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Sportfreunde Lotte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
55%
Victoria Clarholz or Sportfreunde Lotte
77%
Draw or Sportfreunde Lotte
68%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
15%
Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
76%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
42%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
18%
Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
82%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
52%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
42%
Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Sportfreunde Lotte away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.00 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
32%
level
23%
Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
45%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Victoria Clarholz vs Sportfreunde Lotte

Sportfreunde Lotte beat Victoria Clarholz 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Holzhofstadion in Herzebrock.