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Sportfreunde Lotte vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Sportfreunde Lotte
Sportfreunde Lotte
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
9/17/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 6Stadion am Lotter Kreuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sportfreunde Lotte63%
×Draw20%
Victoria Clarholz18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.21
Victoria Clarholz
1.08

Sportfreunde Lotte creates 105% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 89 away

creates per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
2.62
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Sportfreunde Lotte
0.88
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Sportfreunde Lotte+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportfreunde Lotte ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sportfreunde Lotte or draw
82%
Sportfreunde Lotte or Victoria Clarholz
80%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
37%

Winning margin

Sportfreunde Lotte wins by 2+
40%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sportfreunde Lotte 1+ goals
89%
Sportfreunde Lotte 2+ goals
65%
Sportfreunde Lotte 3+ goals
38%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
66%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
29%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sportfreunde Lotte (draw refunded)
78%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportfreunde Lotte at home — creates 2.62, concedes 0.88 · 34 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportfreunde Lotte attack 2.62 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.21

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Sportfreunde Lotte defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sportfreunde Lotte scores more
63%
level
20%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
18%

Sportfreunde Lotte at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sportfreunde Lotte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sportfreunde Lotte vs Victoria Clarholz

Sportfreunde Lotte and Victoria Clarholz drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion am Lotter Kreuz in Lotte.