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Victoria Clarholz vs Meinerzhagen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
FT
1 – 4
Meinerzhagen
Meinerzhagen
9/24/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 4Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Victoria Clarholz46%
×Draw22%
Meinerzhagen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.88
Meinerzhagen
1.52

Victoria Clarholz creates 24% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 20 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Meinerzhagen
1.55

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Meinerzhagen
2.20

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Meinerzhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
69%
Victoria Clarholz or Meinerzhagen
78%
Draw or Meinerzhagen
54%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
25%
Meinerzhagen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
85%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
56%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
29%
Meinerzhagen 1+ goals
78%
Meinerzhagen 2+ goals
45%
Meinerzhagen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
59%
Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Meinerzhagen away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Meinerzhagen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Meinerzhagen attack 1.55 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
46%
level
22%
Meinerzhagen scores more
31%

Victoria Clarholz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Victoria Clarholz 1–4 Meinerzhagen

Meinerzhagen beat Victoria Clarholz 4-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 24, 2020.

The match was played at Holzhofstadion in Herzebrock.