Meinerzhagen 0–0 Victoria Clarholz: Result & Stats

Meinerzhagen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria Clarholz

3/31/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 19Stadion An der Oststraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Meinerzhagen48%

×Draw23%

Victoria Clarholz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MeinerzhagenExpected goals in this matchVictoria Clarholz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.36

Meinerzhagen

1.79

Victoria Clarholz

1.36

Meinerzhagen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

1.78

creates per match

1.28

1.44

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Meinerzhagen

1.78

Victoria Clarholz

1.28

allows per match

Meinerzhagen

1.44

Victoria Clarholz

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meinerzhagen+0.00on par

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meinerzhagen ↓

Victoria Clarholz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Meinerzhagen or draw

71%

Meinerzhagen or Victoria Clarholz

77%

Draw or Victoria Clarholz

52%

Winning margin

Meinerzhagen wins by 2+

26%

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Meinerzhagen 1+ goals

83%

Meinerzhagen 2+ goals

53%

Meinerzhagen 3+ goals

26%

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals

74%

Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals

39%

Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Meinerzhagen (draw refunded)

62%

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meinerzhagen at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meinerzhagen attack 1.78 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Meinerzhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Meinerzhagen scores more

48%

level

23%

Victoria Clarholz scores more

29%

Meinerzhagen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Meinerzhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff