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Victoria Clarholz vs Holzwickeder SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
CANC
14:00
Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
3/21/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 26Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Victoria Clarholz38%
×Draw23%
Holzwickeder SC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
1.61
Holzwickeder SC
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 18 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Holzwickeder SC
1.72

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Holzwickeder SC
1.67

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Holzwickeder SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
62%
Victoria Clarholz or Holzwickeder SC
77%
Draw or Holzwickeder SC
62%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
19%
Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
80%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
48%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
22%
Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
80%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
47%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
50%
Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Holzwickeder SC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Holzwickeder SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.72 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
38%
level
23%
Holzwickeder SC scores more
38%

Victoria Clarholz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria Clarholz vs Holzwickeder SC — Match Preview

Victoria Clarholz face Holzwickeder SC on March 21, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Victoria Clarholz host Holzwickeder SC at Holzhofstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.