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Holzwickeder SC vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Holzwickeder SC
Holzwickeder SC
FT
3 – 0
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
9/27/2020Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 5Montanhydraulik-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Holzwickeder SC35%
×Draw22%
Victoria Clarholz43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holzwickeder SC
1.68
Victoria Clarholz
1.86

Victoria Clarholz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

creates per match

Holzwickeder SC
1.56
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Holzwickeder SC
2.44
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Holzwickeder SC+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holzwickeder SC ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Holzwickeder SC or draw
57%
Holzwickeder SC or Victoria Clarholz
78%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
65%

Winning margin

Holzwickeder SC wins by 2+
18%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Holzwickeder SC 1+ goals
81%
Holzwickeder SC 2+ goals
50%
Holzwickeder SC 3+ goals
24%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
84%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
55%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Holzwickeder SC (draw refunded)
45%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holzwickeder SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holzwickeder SC attack 1.56 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.68

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Holzwickeder SC defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Holzwickeder SC scores more
35%
level
22%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
43%

Victoria Clarholz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Holzwickeder SC vs Victoria Clarholz

Holzwickeder SC beat Victoria Clarholz 3-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Montanhydraulik-Stadion in Holzwickede.