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Victoria Clarholz vs Hammer SpVg — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
CANC
13:00
Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
6/6/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 40Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Victoria Clarholz56%
×Draw22%
Hammer SpVg23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
2.02
Hammer SpVg
1.21

Victoria Clarholz creates 67% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 19 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Hammer SpVg
0.95

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Hammer SpVg
2.47

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Hammer SpVg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Hammer SpVg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
77%
Victoria Clarholz or Hammer SpVg
78%
Draw or Hammer SpVg
44%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
33%
Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
87%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
60%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
33%
Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
70%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
34%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
71%
Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Hammer SpVg away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Hammer SpVg defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hammer SpVg attack 0.95 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
56%
level
22%
Hammer SpVg scores more
23%

Victoria Clarholz at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Victoria Clarholz host Hammer SpVg

June 6, 2021: Victoria Clarholz take on Hammer SpVg in Oberliga - Westfalen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Victoria Clarholz host Hammer SpVg at Holzhofstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.