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Hammer SpVg vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Hammer SpVg
Hammer SpVg
CANC
14:00
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
2/7/2021Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 1924nexx Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hammer SpVg43%
×Draw23%
Victoria Clarholz34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hammer SpVg
1.81
Victoria Clarholz
1.58

Hammer SpVg creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hammer SpVg
1.84
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Hammer SpVg
1.89
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Hammer SpVg+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammer SpVg ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hammer SpVg or draw
66%
Hammer SpVg or Victoria Clarholz
77%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
57%

Winning margin

Hammer SpVg wins by 2+
23%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hammer SpVg 1+ goals
84%
Hammer SpVg 2+ goals
54%
Hammer SpVg 3+ goals
27%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
79%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
47%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hammer SpVg (draw refunded)
56%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammer SpVg at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammer SpVg attack 1.84 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Hammer SpVg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hammer SpVg scores more
43%
level
23%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
34%

Hammer SpVg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hammer SpVg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hammer SpVg vs Victoria Clarholz — Match Preview

Hammer SpVg face Victoria Clarholz on February 7, 2021 in this Oberliga - Westfalen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hammer SpVg host Victoria Clarholz at 24nexx Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.