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Victoria Clarholz vs Concordia Wiemelhausen — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
A. Nkam 11' (OG)
M. Post 38'
3/16/2025Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 26Holzhofstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Victoria Clarholz61%
×Draw19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Clarholz
2.50
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.38

Victoria Clarholz creates 81% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 18 away

creates per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.56
Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.28

allows per match

Victoria Clarholz
1.48
Concordia Wiemelhausen
3.44

finishing

Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par
Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Clarholz ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Victoria Clarholz or draw
80%
Victoria Clarholz or Concordia Wiemelhausen
81%
Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen
39%

Winning margin

Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
40%
Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
92%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
71%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
45%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
75%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
40%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
75%
Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Clarholz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.56 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.50

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Victoria Clarholz scores more
61%
level
19%
Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
20%

Victoria Clarholz at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Victoria Clarholz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
A. NkamOwn goal
38'
M. Post

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Victoria Clarholz 1–1 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Victoria Clarholz and Concordia Wiemelhausen drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Nkam (11' o.g.), M. Post (38').

The match was played at Holzhofstadion in Herzebrock.