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Concordia Wiemelhausen vs Victoria Clarholz — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Concordia Wiemelhausen
Concordia Wiemelhausen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Victoria Clarholz
Victoria Clarholz
S. Gucciardo 24', 22'
9/22/2024Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 7Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen40%
×Draw21%
Victoria Clarholz39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Wiemelhausen
1.92
Victoria Clarholz
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.05
Victoria Clarholz
1.28

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen
2.47
Victoria Clarholz
1.79

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par
Victoria Clarholz+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Victoria Clarholz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw
61%
Concordia Wiemelhausen or Victoria Clarholz
79%
Draw or Victoria Clarholz
60%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+
22%
Victoria Clarholz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals
85%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals
57%
Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals
30%
Victoria Clarholz 1+ goals
85%
Victoria Clarholz 2+ goals
56%
Victoria Clarholz 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)
51%
Victoria Clarholz (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Victoria Clarholz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.79 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Victoria Clarholz defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.92

Victoria Clarholz attack 1.28 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more
40%
level
21%
Victoria Clarholz scores more
39%

Concordia Wiemelhausen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Concordia Wiemelhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
S. Gucciardo
24'
S. Gucciardo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Concordia Wiemelhausen 0–2 Victoria Clarholz

Victoria Clarholz beat Concordia Wiemelhausen 2-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 22, 2024.

Goals: S. Gucciardo (22', 24').

The match was played at Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen in Bochum.