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Victoria Bardar vs Floreşti — Super Liga 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Floreşti
Floreşti
V. Gurgurov 74', 54' (pen)
M. Blajchin 31'
A. Arabadji 3'
I. Meleca 64'
4/5/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 4Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Victoria Bardar66%
×Draw18%
Floreşti17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
2.55
Floreşti
1.22

Victoria Bardar creates 109% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 62 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.29
Floreşti
0.81

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
1.62
Floreşti
2.82

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

Floreşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
83%
Victoria Bardar or Floreşti
82%
Draw or Floreşti
34%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
44%
Floreşti wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
92%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
72%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
46%
Floreşti 1+ goals
70%
Floreşti 2+ goals
34%
Floreşti 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
80%
Floreşti (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Floreşti away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.29 + Floreşti defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.55

Floreşti attack 0.81 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
66%
level
18%
Floreşti scores more
17%

Victoria Bardar at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Arabadji
31'
M. Blajchin
54'
V. GurgurovPenalty
64'
I. Meleca
74'
V. Gurgurov
87'
D. Daraban
Victoria
Floreşti
A. Novicov
Manager: A. Novicov
I. Ursachi
Manager: I. Ursachi

Match Recap: Victoria Bardar vs Floreşti

Victoria Bardar beat Floreşti 4-1 in Super Liga on April 5, 2025.

Goals: A. Arabadji (3'), M. Blajchin (31'), V. Gurgurov (54' pen, 74'), I. Meleca (64').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.