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Floreşti vs Victoria Bardar — Cupa 2020

Floreşti
Floreşti
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
N. Picus 67'
A. Andrei 39' (pen)
11/1/2023CupaCupa · Round of 16Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Floreşti38%
×Draw18%
Victoria Bardar43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floreşti
2.63
Victoria Bardar
2.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 12 away

creates per match

Floreşti
3.33
Victoria Bardar
3.58

allows per match

Floreşti
2.00
Victoria Bardar
1.92

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw
57%
Floreşti or Victoria Bardar
82%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
62%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+
22%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals
93%
Floreşti 2+ goals
73%
Floreşti 3+ goals
48%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
94%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
76%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)
47%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 3.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 3.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 3.33 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.63

Victoria Bardar attack 3.58 + Floreşti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Floreşti scores more
38%
level
18%
Victoria Bardar scores more
43%

Victoria Bardar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
A. AndreiPenalty
67'
N. Picus

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Floreşti 1–1 Victoria Bardar

Floreşti and Victoria Bardar drew 1-1 in Cupa on November 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Andrei (39' pen), N. Picus (67').

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Tighina.