Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Victoria Bardar vs FCM Ungheni — League #395 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
8/15/2025League #395League #395 · Round 4Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Victoria Bardar36%
×Draw19%
FCM Ungheni44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
2.20
FCM Ungheni
2.44

FCM Ungheni creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.73
FCM Ungheni
2.33

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
2.55
FCM Ungheni
1.67

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
FCM Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

FCM Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
56%
Victoria Bardar or FCM Ungheni
81%
Draw or FCM Ungheni
64%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
20%
FCM Ungheni wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
89%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
64%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
37%
FCM Ungheni 1+ goals
91%
FCM Ungheni 2+ goals
70%
FCM Ungheni 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
45%
FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

FCM Ungheni away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.73 + FCM Ungheni defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.20

FCM Ungheni attack 2.33 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
36%
level
19%
FCM Ungheni scores more
44%

FCM Ungheni at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FCM Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Victoria Bardar 2–3 FCM Ungheni

FCM Ungheni beat Victoria Bardar 3-2 in League #395 on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.