Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FCM Ungheni vs Victoria Bardar — League #395 2026

FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
9/26/2025League #395League #395 · Round 9Stadionul Ungheni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FCM Ungheni55%
×Draw20%
Victoria Bardar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCM Ungheni
2.25
Victoria Bardar
1.48

FCM Ungheni creates 52% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

FCM Ungheni
2.33
Victoria Bardar
1.64

allows per match

FCM Ungheni
1.33
Victoria Bardar
2.18

finishing

FCM Ungheni+0.00on par
Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCM Ungheni ↓

Victoria Bardar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FCM Ungheni or draw
75%
FCM Ungheni or Victoria Bardar
80%
Draw or Victoria Bardar
45%

Winning margin

FCM Ungheni wins by 2+
33%
Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FCM Ungheni 1+ goals
89%
FCM Ungheni 2+ goals
65%
FCM Ungheni 3+ goals
39%
Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
77%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
43%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)
69%
Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCM Ungheni at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCM Ungheni attack 2.33 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.25

Victoria Bardar attack 1.64 + FCM Ungheni defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FCM Ungheni scores more
55%
level
20%
Victoria Bardar scores more
25%

FCM Ungheni at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FCM Ungheni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCM Ungheni vs Victoria Bardar

FCM Ungheni beat Victoria Bardar 3-1 in League #395 on September 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ungheni in Ungheni.