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Victoria Bardar vs FCM Ungheni — Super Liga 2026

Victoria Bardar
Victoria Bardar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FCM Ungheni
FCM Ungheni
5/17/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundJoma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Victoria Bardar57%
×Draw17%
FCM Ungheni25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Victoria Bardar
2.98
FCM Ungheni
1.98

Victoria Bardar creates 51% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

creates per match

Victoria Bardar
2.29
FCM Ungheni
2.33

allows per match

Victoria Bardar
1.62
FCM Ungheni
3.67

finishing

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par
FCM Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Victoria Bardar ↓

FCM Ungheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Victoria Bardar or draw
75%
Victoria Bardar or FCM Ungheni
83%
Draw or FCM Ungheni
43%

Winning margin

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+
38%
FCM Ungheni wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals
95%
Victoria Bardar 2+ goals
79%
Victoria Bardar 3+ goals
56%
FCM Ungheni 1+ goals
86%
FCM Ungheni 2+ goals
59%
FCM Ungheni 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)
70%
FCM Ungheni (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Victoria Bardar at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

FCM Ungheni away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Victoria Bardar attack 2.29 + FCM Ungheni defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.98

FCM Ungheni attack 2.33 + Victoria Bardar defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Victoria Bardar scores more
57%
level
17%
FCM Ungheni scores more
25%

Victoria Bardar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Victoria
FCM
A. Novicov
Manager: A. Novicov
D. Bambuleac
Manager: D. Bambuleac

Match Recap: Victoria Bardar vs FCM Ungheni

Victoria Bardar beat FCM Ungheni 3-1 in Super Liga on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.