Vicenza Virtus 3–1 Ternana: Result & Stats

Vicenza Virtus

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Ternana

Ł. Teodorczyk 45'

D. Diaw 27', 7'

A. Donnarumma 55'

3/6/2022

Serie B · Round 28Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus41%

×Draw26%

Ternana33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchTernana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.25

Vicenza Virtus

1.42

Ternana

1.25

Vicenza Virtus creates 14% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 59 away

1.11

creates per match

1.24

1.27

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.11

Ternana

1.24

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.27

Ternana

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Ternana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Ternana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

67%

Vicenza Virtus or Ternana

74%

Draw or Ternana

59%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

19%

Ternana wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

76%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

41%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

17%

Ternana 1+ goals

71%

Ternana 2+ goals

36%

Ternana 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

55%

Ternana (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Ternana away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.73 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Ternana defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ternana attack 1.24 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

41%

level

26%

Ternana scores more

33%

Vicenza Virtus at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Diaw

Vicenza Virtus · M

8.7

Match Events

7'

9'

27'

41'

45'

Ł. Teodorczyk↳ M. Cavion

46'

A. Donnarumma← F. Furlan

52'

M. Grandi← N. Contini

55'

A. Donnarumma

58'

Luka Bogdan

60'

C. Boli← Ł. Teodorczyk

61'

C. Maggio← M. Bruscagin

63'

M. Defendi← L. Bogdan

67'

Alessio Da Cruz

69'

F. Paghera← I. Koutsoupias

69'

A. Celli← B. Martella

73'

S. Giacomelli← N. Dalmonte

73'

R. Meggiorini← A. da Cruz

77'

Christian Maggio

78'

S. Mazzocchi← D. Peralta

84'

Riccardo Meggiorini

86'

Fabrizio Paghera

90+6'

Stefano PettinariGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaTernana

Overview

30%Possession70%

9Total Shots17

3Corners8

19Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots17

4On Target2

5Off Target9

0Blocked6

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box8

Passing

30%Possession70%

233Total Passes523

128Accurate Passes413

55%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3