Ternana 5–0 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Ternana

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Vicenza Virtus

A. Donnarumma 73', 56'

A. Partipilo 66', 40'

A. Palumbo 30'

10/23/2021

Serie B · Round 9Stadio Libero Liberati

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ternana43%

×Draw27%

Vicenza Virtus30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TernanaExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.09

Ternana

1.38

Vicenza Virtus

1.09

Ternana creates 27% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 43 away

1.16

creates per match

1.02

1.16

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ternana

1.16

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Ternana

1.16

Vicenza Virtus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ternana+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ternana ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ternana or draw

70%

Ternana or Vicenza Virtus

73%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

57%

Winning margin

Ternana wins by 2+

21%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ternana 1+ goals

75%

Ternana 2+ goals

40%

Ternana 3+ goals

16%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

66%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

30%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ternana (draw refunded)

59%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ternana at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 58 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ternana attack 1.16 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Ternana defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ternana scores more

43%

level

27%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

30%

Ternana at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ternana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Partipilo

Ternana · M

8.6

Match Events

7'

Frederik Sørensen

24'

Federico Proia

30'

A. Palumbo↳ A. Partipilo

37'

Filippo Ranocchia

37'

M. Bruscagin← D. Cappelletti

40'

A. Partipilo↳ B. Martella

46'

M. Boben← F. Sørensen

46'

S. Giacomelli← F. Proia

46'

L. Zonta← A. Taugourdeau

56'

57'

59'

62'

62'

D. Agazzi← M. Proietti

66'

A. Partipilo↳ C. Capone

71'

Anthony Partipilo

71'

S. Pettinari← C. Falletti

73'

A. Donnarumma↳ B. Martella

74'

A. Salzano← A. Partipilo

75'

S. Longo← R. Meggiorini

75'

M. Calderoni← N. Dalmonte

81'

Loris Zonta

83'

Bruno Martella

84'

Riccardo Brosco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TernanaVicenza

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots11

2Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots11

6On Target0

5Off Target10

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

455Total Passes446

366Accurate Passes369

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1