Vicenza Virtus 1–3 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vicenza Virtus

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Pisa

F. Proia 30'

G. Mastinu 90+2'

S. Birindelli 81'

I. Touré 43'

9/18/2021

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vicenza Virtus36%

×Draw27%

Pisa37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.25

Vicenza Virtus

1.23

Pisa

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 116 away

1.10

creates per match

1.20

1.29

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.10

Pisa

1.20

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.29

Pisa

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

63%

Vicenza Virtus or Pisa

73%

Draw or Pisa

64%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

15%

Pisa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

71%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

35%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

13%

Pisa 1+ goals

71%

Pisa 2+ goals

36%

Pisa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

49%

Pisa (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.10 + Pisa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Pisa attack 1.20 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

36%

level

27%

Pisa scores more

37%

Pisa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pisa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

I. Touré

Pisa · M

7.7

Match Events

30'

F. Proia↳ M. Bruscagin

38'

Matteo Bruscagin

43'

I. Touré↳ R. Gucher

46'

Filippo Ranocchia

58'

L. Zonta← S. Pontisso

59'

S. Birindelli← H. Hermannsson

59'

G. Sibilli← D. Marsura

63'

Filippo RanocchiaGoal confirmed

63'

Filippo RanocchiaGoal confirmed

64'

Riccardo Meggiorini

65'

Á. Nagy← A. De Vitis

66'

Alessandro Di Pardo

71'

D. Lanzafame← R. Meggiorini

71'

S. Giacomelli← N. Dalmonte

76'

M. Calderoni← M. Bruscagin

77'

L. Crecco← F. Proia

81'

S. Birindelli

83'

G. Masucci← L. Lucca

83'

G. Mastinu← R. Gucher

87'

Nicolas

90+3'

Stefano Giacomelli

90+3'

Giuseppe Mastinu

90+2'

G. Mastinu↳ G. Masucci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaPisa

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots13

3Corners7

19Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots13

4On Target7

3Off Target4

3Blocked2

3Inside Box7

7Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

301Total Passes373

216Accurate Passes291

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls13

5Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 1–3 Pisa

Pisa beat Vicenza Virtus 3-1 in Serie B on September 18, 2021.

Goals: F. Proia (30'), I. Touré (43'), S. Birindelli (81'), G. Mastinu (90+2').

Pisa controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.

Vicenza Virtus vs Pisa — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 1–3 Pisa