Vicenza Virtus 4–4 Pisa: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vicenza Virtus

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Pisa

J. Da Riva 74'

D. Cappelletti 56'

R. Meggiorini 42'

G. Gori 9'

R. Gucher 73', 63'

L. Vido 26'

M. Marconi 19' (pen)

10/31/2020

Serie B · Round 6Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus37%

×Draw27%

Pisa36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchPisa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.23

Vicenza Virtus

1.24

Pisa

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 117 away

1.11

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.11

Pisa

1.20

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.27

Pisa

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Pisa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Pisa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

64%

Vicenza Virtus or Pisa

73%

Draw or Pisa

63%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

16%

Pisa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

71%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

35%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

13%

Pisa 1+ goals

71%

Pisa 2+ goals

35%

Pisa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

50%

Pisa (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Pisa away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.36 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Pisa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Pisa attack 1.20 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

37%

level

27%

Pisa scores more

36%

Vicenza Virtus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

R. Gucher

Pisa · M

8.5

Match Events

9'

G. Gori↳ N. Dalmonte

13'

Pietro Beruatto

18'

Emanuele Padella

19'

M. MarconiPenalty

26'

36'

39'

39'

42'

R. Meggiorini↳ P. Beruatto

45'

Luca Mazzitelli

56'

D. Cappelletti↳ N. Dalmonte

57'

F. Belli← G. Masucci

59'

J. Da Riva← L. Rigoni

59'

L. Barlocco← P. Beruatto

63'

R. Gucher↳ M. Marconi

64'

S. Longo← G. Gori

65'

M. Marin← L. Mazzitelli

73'

R. Gucher↳ A. De Vitis

74'

J. Da Riva

77'

A. Cinelli← S. Pontisso

77'

N. Siega← A. De Vitis

77'

F. Lisi← L. Vido

78'

J. Vandeputte← A. Nalini

83'

Jacopo Da Riva

86'

Antonio Caracciolo

90'

Antonio Cinelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaPisa

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots9

6Corners1

23Fouls20

Shots

22Total Shots9

7On Target5

10Off Target3

5Blocked1

16Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

337Total Passes277

260Accurate Passes188

77%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls20

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1