Vicenza Virtus 1–1 Crotone: Result & Stats

Vicenza Virtus

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Crotone

D. Schnegg 29' (OG)

M. Marras 40'

4/6/2022

Serie B · Round 33Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Vicenza Virtus39%

×Draw27%

Crotone34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.21

Vicenza Virtus

1.32

Crotone

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 56 away

1.10

creates per match

1.14

1.29

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.10

Crotone

1.14

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.29

Crotone

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

66%

Vicenza Virtus or Crotone

73%

Draw or Crotone

61%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

18%

Crotone wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

73%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

38%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

15%

Crotone 1+ goals

70%

Crotone 2+ goals

34%

Crotone 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

54%

Crotone (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.10 + Crotone defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Crotone attack 1.14 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

39%

level

27%

Crotone scores more

34%

Vicenza Virtus at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Marras

Crotone · F

7.6

Match Events

13'

16'

24'

28'

29'

D. SchneggOwn goal

35'

Łukasz Teodorczyk

36'

Theophilus Awua

40'

M. Marras↳ G. Cangiano

44'

David Schnegg

44'

David Schnegg

46'

E. Padella← R. Brosco

57'

C. Boli← M. Cavion

57'

N. Dalmonte← S. Giacomelli

65'

R. Meggiorini← Ł. Teodorczyk

70'

P. Giannotti← G. Cangiano

76'

T. Schirò← M. Marras

89'

B. Kone← T. Awua

90+2'

Ben Lhassine Kone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VicenzaCrotone

Overview

48%Possession52%

10Total Shots7

9Corners4

11Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots7

2On Target1

3Off Target4

5Blocked2

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

355Total Passes411

254Accurate Passes313

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1