Crotone 0–1 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats

Crotone

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vicenza Virtus

S. Giacomelli 67'

11/26/2021

Serie B · Round 14Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Crotone49%

×Draw26%

Vicenza Virtus25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CrotoneExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.02

Crotone

1.52

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

Crotone creates 49% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 43 away

1.43

creates per match

1.02

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Crotone

1.43

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Crotone

1.02

Vicenza Virtus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Crotone or draw

75%

Crotone or Vicenza Virtus

74%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

51%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+

25%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals

78%

Crotone 2+ goals

45%

Crotone 3+ goals

20%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

64%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

27%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)

66%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.43 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crotone scores more

49%

level

26%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

25%

Crotone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

N. Estévez

Crotone · M

7.9

Match Events

31'

Filippo Ranocchia

41'

Brian Oddei

46'

M. Marić← A. Kargbo

57'

N. Zanellato← G. Donsah

63'

R. Meggiorini← F. Proia

63'

S. Giacomelli← N. Dalmonte

67'

S. Giacomelli↳ D. Diaw

72'

S. Molina← I. Nedelcearu

72'

P. Giannotti← M. Sala

73'

S. Pontisso← A. Di Pardo

80'

Ahmad Benali

82'

G. Borello← B. Oddei

82'

T. Sandon← M. Calderoni

82'

A. Taugourdeau← F. Ranocchia

90+5'

Loris Zonta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrotoneVicenza

Overview

65%Possession35%

12Total Shots17

9Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots17

2On Target6

3Off Target7

7Blocked4

5Inside Box10

7Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

551Total Passes290

449Accurate Passes191

81%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2