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Vicenza Virtus vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avellino
Avellino
9/24/2016Serie BSerie B · Round 6Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vicenza Virtus44%
×Draw27%
Avellino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vicenza Virtus
1.34
Avellino
1.04

Vicenza Virtus creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 21 away

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.11
Avellino
0.81

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus
1.27
Avellino
1.57

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par
Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw
71%
Vicenza Virtus or Avellino
73%
Draw or Avellino
56%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
20%
Avellino wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
74%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
39%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
15%
Avellino 1+ goals
65%
Avellino 2+ goals
28%
Avellino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
60%
Avellino (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Avellino defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

Avellino attack 0.81 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more
44%
level
27%
Avellino scores more
29%

Vicenza Virtus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Andrea Esposito
38'
Angelo D'Angelo
42'
Layousse Diallo
54'
C. Galano← I. Cernigoi
54'
I. Donkor← N. Belloni
61'
F. Raicevic← M. Di Piazza
61'
L. Crecco← A. DAngelo
69'
W. Jidayi← M. Soumaré
70'
Luca Crecco
72'
Francesco Urso
75'
Davide Pio Bianchi
76'
R. Pucino← C. Zaccardo
82'
Alessio Vita
88'
Nicholas Siega

Possession

54%Vicenza

Shots

6Vicenza

Statistics

VicenzaAvellino
Overview
54%Possession46%
6Total Shots10
3Corners2
19Fouls26
Shots
6Total Shots10
4On Target2
2Off Target8
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls26
5Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Serie B: Vicenza Virtus 0–0 Avellino

Vicenza Virtus and Avellino drew 0-0 in Serie B on September 24, 2016.

Vicenza Virtus controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Romeo Menti in Vicenza.