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Avellino vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Avellino
Avellino
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vicenza Virtus
Vicenza Virtus
2/25/2017Serie BSerie B · Round 27Stadio Partenio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Avellino46%
×Draw25%
Vicenza Virtus29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avellino
1.54
Vicenza Virtus
1.16

Avellino creates 33% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 44 away

creates per match

Avellino
1.45
Vicenza Virtus
1.02

allows per match

Avellino
1.30
Vicenza Virtus
1.64

finishing

Avellino+0.00on par
Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Vicenza Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Avellino or draw
71%
Avellino or Vicenza Virtus
75%
Draw or Vicenza Virtus
54%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+
23%
Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals
79%
Avellino 2+ goals
45%
Avellino 3+ goals
20%
Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals
69%
Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals
32%
Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)
62%
Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.45 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Avellino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avellino scores more
46%
level
25%
Vicenza Virtus scores more
29%

Avellino at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avellino vs Vicenza Virtus

Avellino beat Vicenza Virtus 3-1 in Serie B on February 25, 2017.

The match was played at Stadio Partenio in Avellino.