Vicenza Virtus 2–1 Ascoli: Result & Stats | Serie B

Vicenza Virtus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ascoli

12/19/2020

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Romeo Menti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Vicenza Virtus40%

×Draw27%

Ascoli33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vicenza VirtusExpected goals in this matchAscoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.18

Vicenza Virtus

1.31

Ascoli

1.18

Vicenza Virtus creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 114 away

1.11

creates per match

1.08

1.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.11

Ascoli

1.08

allows per match

Vicenza Virtus

1.27

Ascoli

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Ascoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vicenza Virtus ↓

Ascoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vicenza Virtus or draw

67%

Vicenza Virtus or Ascoli

73%

Draw or Ascoli

60%

Winning margin

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

18%

Ascoli wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

73%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

38%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

14%

Ascoli 1+ goals

69%

Ascoli 2+ goals

33%

Ascoli 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

54%

Ascoli (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vicenza Virtus at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Ascoli away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.11 + Ascoli defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ascoli attack 1.08 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vicenza Virtus scores more

40%

level

27%

Ascoli scores more

33%

Vicenza Virtus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vicenza Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff