Ascoli 2–1 Vicenza Virtus: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ascoli

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Vicenza Virtus

R. Brosco 43' (OG)

F. Dionisi 20'

D. Diaw 62'

11/6/2021

Serie B · Round 12Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ascoli44%

×Draw27%

Vicenza Virtus29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AscoliExpected goals in this matchVicenza Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.06

Ascoli

1.39

Vicenza Virtus

1.06

Ascoli creates 31% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 43 away

1.18

creates per match

1.02

1.09

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Ascoli

1.18

Vicenza Virtus

1.02

allows per match

Ascoli

1.09

Vicenza Virtus

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ascoli+0.00on par

Vicenza Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ascoli ↓

Vicenza Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ascoli or draw

71%

Ascoli or Vicenza Virtus

73%

Draw or Vicenza Virtus

56%

Winning margin

Ascoli wins by 2+

21%

Vicenza Virtus wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ascoli 1+ goals

75%

Ascoli 2+ goals

40%

Ascoli 3+ goals

16%

Vicenza Virtus 1+ goals

65%

Vicenza Virtus 2+ goals

29%

Vicenza Virtus 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ascoli (draw refunded)

61%

Vicenza Virtus (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ascoli at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 114 matches

Vicenza Virtus away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ascoli attack 1.18 + Vicenza Virtus defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Vicenza Virtus attack 1.02 + Ascoli defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ascoli scores more

44%

level

27%

Vicenza Virtus scores more

29%

Ascoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ascoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Dionisi

Ascoli · F

8.2

Match Events

7'

Mario Ierardi

20'

F. Dionisi↳ A. Salvi

34'

R. Brosco← M. Ierardi

38'

Alessandro SalviGoal cancelled

43'

R. BroscoOwn goal

46'

S. Pontisso← A. Taugourdeau

48'

F. Caligara← F. Maistro

52'

59'

62'

67'

68'

M. Collocolo← A. Sabiri

68'

S. Bidaoui← F. Dionisi

73'

M. Calderoni← T. Sandon

73'

S. Giacomelli← N. Dalmonte

77'

Atanas Iliev

82'

A. De Paoli← A. Iliev

82'

D. Quaranta← T. DOrazio

82'

T. Mancini← L. Zonta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AscoliVicenza

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots11

4Corners5

18Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots11

3On Target3

8Off Target7

6Blocked1

9Inside Box8

8Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

317Total Passes407

229Accurate Passes315

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Serie B: Ascoli 2–1 Vicenza Virtus

Ascoli beat Vicenza Virtus 2-1 in Serie B on November 6, 2021.

Goals: F. Dionisi (20'), R. Brosco (43' o.g.), D. Diaw (62').

Vicenza Virtus controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Ascoli Piceno.

Ascoli vs Vicenza Virtus — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Ascoli 2–1 Vicenza Virtus