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Vic vs Cornellà — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Vic
Vic
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cornellà
Cornellà
O. Serrano 71'
9/6/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 1Estadi Municipal de Futbol de Vic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vic36%
×Draw28%
Cornellà36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vic
1.21
Cornellà
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vic
1.24
Cornellà
1.11

allows per match

Vic
1.29
Cornellà
1.17

finishing

Vic+0.00on par
Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vic ↓

Cornellà →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vic or draw
64%
Vic or Cornellà
72%
Draw or Cornellà
64%

Winning margin

Vic wins by 2+
16%
Cornellà wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vic 1+ goals
70%
Vic 2+ goals
34%
Vic 3+ goals
12%
Cornellà 1+ goals
70%
Cornellà 2+ goals
34%
Cornellà 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vic (draw refunded)
50%
Cornellà (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vic at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Cornellà away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vic attack 1.24 + Cornellà defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cornellà attack 1.11 + Vic defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vic scores more
36%
level
28%
Cornellà scores more
36%

Vic at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Vic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'
O. Serrano
Vic
Cornellà
Ramonet
Manager: Ramonet
Lopo
Manager: Lopo

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Vic 0–1 Cornellà

Cornellà beat Vic 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: O. Serrano (71').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Futbol de Vic in Vic.