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Cornellà vs Vic — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cornellà
Cornellà
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vic
Vic
T. Penalba 89'
1/17/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 18Nou Municipal de Cornella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cornellà61%
×Draw24%
Vic16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cornellà
1.71
Vic
0.74

Cornellà creates 131% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cornellà
1.94
Vic
0.59

allows per match

Cornellà
0.89
Vic
1.47

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par
Vic+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

Vic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw
84%
Cornellà or Vic
76%
Draw or Vic
39%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+
34%
Vic wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals
82%
Cornellà 2+ goals
51%
Cornellà 3+ goals
24%
Vic 1+ goals
52%
Vic 2+ goals
17%
Vic 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)
79%
Vic (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Vic away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.94 + Vic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vic attack 0.59 + Cornellà defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cornellà scores more
61%
level
24%
Vic scores more
16%

Cornellà at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

89'
T. Penalba
Cornellà
Vic
Lopo
Manager: Lopo
Ramonet
Manager: Ramonet

Match Recap: Cornellà vs Vic

Cornellà beat Vic 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 17, 2026.

Goals: T. Penalba (89').

The match was played at Nou Municipal de Cornella in Cornella de Llobregat.