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Viborg vs FC Nordsjaelland — Superliga 2018

Viborg
Viborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
H. Bidstrup 72'
S. Jalal 8'
L. Sadio 62'
3/1/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 22Energi Viborg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Viborg40%
×Draw24%
FC Nordsjaelland36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viborg
1.55
FC Nordsjaelland
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

Viborg
1.42
FC Nordsjaelland
1.30

allows per match

Viborg
1.60
FC Nordsjaelland
1.69

finishing

Viborg+0.03on par
FC Nordsjaelland+0.03on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Viborg or draw
64%
Viborg or FC Nordsjaelland
76%
Draw or FC Nordsjaelland
60%

Winning margin

Viborg wins by 2+
20%
FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Viborg 1+ goals
79%
Viborg 2+ goals
46%
Viborg 3+ goals
20%
FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
77%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
42%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Viborg (draw refunded)
53%
FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.69 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg attack 1.42 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.55

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.30 + Viborg defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viborg scores more
40%
level
24%
FC Nordsjaelland scores more
36%

Viborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. JorgensenViborgViborg · M
9.2

Match Events

8'
S. Jalal
46'
L. Sadio← V. Berthelsen
57'
Caleb Yirenkyi
62'
L. Sadio↳ H. Rasmussen
63'
I. Adel← H. Rasmussen
63'
M. Heyde← M. Brink
71'
A. Beck← M. Sondergaard
71'
O. Addo← C. Nouck
72'
H. Bidstrup↳ T. Jorgensen
81'
L. Nene← N. Markmann
85'
I. Sigurgeirsson← H. Bidstrup
85'
M. Hoedemakers← T. Jorgensen
89'
S. Radic← D. Hanza
90+6'
Jeppe Grønning
90+6'
Mees Hoedemakers

Possession

48%Viborg

Shots

23Viborg

Pass accuracy

49%Viborg

Statistics

ViborgFC
Overview
48%Possession52%
23Total Shots15
1.84Expected Goals (xG)1.47
4Corners2
8Fouls17
Shots
23Total Shots15
7On Target4
11Off Target4
5Blocked7
15Inside Box7
8Outside Box8
Passing
48%Possession52%
437Total Passes481
351Accurate Passes393
80%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
-0.08Goals Prevented-0.08
Discipline
8Fouls17
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Superliga: Viborg 2–1 FC Nordsjaelland

Viborg beat FC Nordsjaelland 2-1 in Superliga on March 1, 2026.

Goals: S. Jalal (8'), L. Sadio (62'), H. Bidstrup (72').

FC Nordsjaelland controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 23.

The match was played at Energi Viborg Arena in Viborg.