FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 Viborg: Result & Stats

FC Nordsjaelland

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Viborg

J. Janssen 90'

P. Amoako 32'

C. Nouck 19'

4/19/2026

Superliga · Championship Group - 27Right to Dream Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

FC Nordsjaelland46%

×Draw22%

Viborg31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NordsjaellandExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.52

FC Nordsjaelland

1.89

Viborg

1.52

FC Nordsjaelland creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

2.14

creates per match

1.81

1.22

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

FC Nordsjaelland

2.14

Viborg

1.81

allows per match

FC Nordsjaelland

1.22

Viborg

1.63

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

FC Nordsjaelland-0.14scores less

Viborg-0.22scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nordsjaelland ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FC Nordsjaelland or draw

69%

FC Nordsjaelland or Viborg

78%

Draw or Viborg

54%

Winning margin

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

26%

Viborg wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

85%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

56%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

29%

Viborg 1+ goals

78%

Viborg 2+ goals

45%

Viborg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

60%

Viborg (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nordsjaelland at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.22 · 21 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.63 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nordsjaelland attack 2.14 + Viborg defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.89

Viborg attack 1.81 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

46%

level

22%

Viborg scores more

31%

FC Nordsjaelland at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Hansen

FC Nordsjaelland · G

8.7

Match Events

19'

21'

32'

44'

45+1'

50'

62'

N. Markmann← R. Norheim

62'

L. Sadio← I. Adel

64'

Alexander Lind Rasmussen

68'

Charly NouckPenalty cancelled

73'

A. Beck← M. Sondergaard

73'

J. Mbom← H. Bidstrup

81'

M. Hoedemakers← J. Gronning

81'

T. Freriks← D. Hanza

82'

V. Gustafsen← J. Lahteenmaki

82'

M. Heyde← M. Brink

82'

L. Nene← A. Lind

87'

O. Bundgaard← S. Kuzmic

90'

J. Janssen↳ M. Heyde

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCViborg

Overview

67%Possession33%

18Total Shots12

2.12Expected Goals (xG)1.48

6Corners4

9Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots12

5On Target6

8Off Target5

5Blocked1

11Inside Box9

7Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

693Total Passes333

627Accurate Passes263

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

-0.28Goals Prevented-0.28

Discipline

9Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1

Superliga: FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 Viborg

FC Nordsjaelland beat Viborg 2-1 in Superliga on April 19, 2026.

Goals: C. Nouck (19'), P. Amoako (32'), J. Janssen (90').

FC Nordsjaelland controlled possession (67%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Right to Dream Park in Farum.

FC Nordsjaelland vs Viborg — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superliga: FC Nordsjaelland 2–1 Viborg