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Viborg vs FC Fredericia — Superliga 2018

Viborg
Viborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
9/28/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 10Energi Viborg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Viborg50%
×Draw22%
FC Fredericia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viborg
2.02
FC Fredericia
1.48

Viborg creates 36% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Viborg
1.49
FC Fredericia
1.27

allows per match

Viborg
1.69
FC Fredericia
2.55

finishing

Viborg+0.06on par
FC Fredericia+0.18scores more

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg ↓

FC Fredericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Viborg or draw
72%
Viborg or FC Fredericia
78%
Draw or FC Fredericia
50%

Winning margin

Viborg wins by 2+
29%
FC Fredericia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Viborg 1+ goals
87%
Viborg 2+ goals
60%
Viborg 3+ goals
33%
FC Fredericia 1+ goals
77%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
43%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Viborg (draw refunded)
64%
FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.69 · 22 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg attack 1.49 + FC Fredericia defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.02

FC Fredericia attack 1.27 + Viborg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viborg scores more
50%
level
22%
FC Fredericia scores more
28%

Viborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Viborg 2–1 FC Fredericia

Viborg beat FC Fredericia 2-1 in Superliga on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Energi Viborg Arena in Viborg.