FC Fredericia 0–3 Viborg: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Viborg

S. Radic 78'

F. Rieper 55' (OG)

C. Nouck 53'

11/9/2025

Superliga · Round 15Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Fredericia32%

×Draw23%

Viborg45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.79

FC Fredericia

1.48

Viborg

1.79

Viborg creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.40

creates per match

1.79

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.40

Viborg

1.79

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.79

Viborg

1.55

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

FC Fredericia-0.13scores less

Viborg-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

55%

FC Fredericia or Viborg

77%

Draw or Viborg

68%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

15%

Viborg wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

77%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

43%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

19%

Viborg 1+ goals

83%

Viborg 2+ goals

53%

Viborg 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

42%

Viborg (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.55 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.40 + Viborg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.48

Viborg attack 1.79 + FC Fredericia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

32%

level

23%

Viborg scores more

45%

Viborg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Jorgensen

Viborg · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

Charly HornemanPenalty cancelled

29'

Andreas Pyndt

45+2'

Moses Opondo

45'

Jeppe Grønning

53'

C. Nouck↳ J. Mbom

55'

F. RieperOwn goal

61'

S. Johannesen← A. Pyndt

61'

D. F. Kristjansson← M. Opondo

61'

61'

61'

73'

73'

Y. Njoh← C. Nouck

73'

D. Hanza← T. Freriks

73'

F. Damkjer← J. Gronning

78'

S. Radic↳ Y. Njoh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCViborg

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots21

0.24Expected Goals (xG)1.56

1Corners8

14Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots21

2On Target6

6Off Target3

3Blocked12

5Inside Box14

6Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

516Total Passes473

450Accurate Passes407

87%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Superliga: FC Fredericia 0–3 Viborg

Viborg beat FC Fredericia 3-0 in Superliga on November 9, 2025.

Goals: C. Nouck (53'), F. Rieper (55' o.g.), S. Radic (78').

FC Fredericia controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 21.

The match was played at Monjasa Park in Fredericia.

FC Fredericia vs Viborg — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Superliga: FC Fredericia 0–3 Viborg