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Viborg vs Aalborg — Superliga 2018

Viborg
Viborg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aalborg
Aalborg
S. Radić 82'
T. Jørgensen 75'
L. Kramer 53' (OG)
N. Helenius 65'
5/11/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Relegation Round - 8Energi Viborg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Viborg50%
×Draw24%
Aalborg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viborg
1.75
Aalborg
1.21

Viborg creates 45% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Viborg
1.46
Aalborg
0.82

allows per match

Viborg
1.60
Aalborg
2.05

finishing

Viborg+0.06on par
Aalborg-0.02on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viborg ↓

Aalborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Viborg or draw
74%
Viborg or Aalborg
76%
Draw or Aalborg
50%

Winning margin

Viborg wins by 2+
27%
Aalborg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viborg 1+ goals
83%
Viborg 2+ goals
52%
Viborg 3+ goals
25%
Aalborg 1+ goals
70%
Aalborg 2+ goals
34%
Aalborg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Viborg (draw refunded)
65%
Aalborg (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viborg at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.60 · 21 matches

Aalborg away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.05 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viborg attack 1.46 + Aalborg defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aalborg attack 0.82 + Viborg defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Viborg scores more
50%
level
24%
Aalborg scores more
26%

Viborg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
T. JørgensenViborgViborg · M
7.9

Match Events

23'
Srdjan Kuzmić
33'
Bjarne Pudel
46'
M. Jiménez← B. Pudel
53'
L. KramerOwn goal
63'
Y. Njoh← Serginho
63'
T. Jørgensen← J. Vester
63'
I. Hansen-Aarøen← M. Bomholt
64'
M. Søndergaard← J. Grønning
65'
N. Helenius↳ M. Jørgensen
73'
O. Ross← N. Helenius
75'
T. Jørgensen
82'
C. Nouck← I. Jensen
82'
S. Radić↳ M. Søndergaard
83'
A. Jasson← A. Bruus
83'
O. Diakhité← M. Jiménez
85'
Mads Søndergaard
87'
H. Bidstrup← S. Kuzmić
90'
Asker Beck

Possession

54%Viborg

Shots

22Viborg

Pass accuracy

51%Viborg

Statistics

ViborgAalborg
Overview
54%Possession46%
22Total Shots11
2.17Expected Goals (xG)1.43
8Corners8
15Fouls20
Shots
22Total Shots11
7On Target3
6Off Target3
9Blocked5
12Inside Box7
10Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
479Total Passes397
415Accurate Passes336
87%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls20
3Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Viborg vs Aalborg

Viborg beat Aalborg 3-1 in Superliga on May 11, 2025.

Goals: L. Kramer (53' o.g.), N. Helenius (65'), T. Jørgensen (75'), S. Radić (82').

Viborg controlled possession (54%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Energi Viborg Arena in Viborg.