Aalborg 0–0 Viborg: Result & Stats | Superliga

Aalborg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Viborg

11/24/2024

Superliga · Round 16Aalborg Portland Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Aalborg37%

×Draw25%

Viborg38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AalborgExpected goals in this matchViborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.41

Aalborg

1.40

Viborg

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 80 away

1.28

creates per match

1.38

1.44

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Aalborg

1.28

Viborg

1.38

allows per match

Aalborg

1.44

Viborg

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aalborg+0.00on par

Viborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg ↓

Viborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aalborg or draw

62%

Aalborg or Viborg

75%

Draw or Viborg

63%

Winning margin

Aalborg wins by 2+

17%

Viborg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aalborg 1+ goals

75%

Aalborg 2+ goals

41%

Aalborg 3+ goals

17%

Viborg 1+ goals

76%

Viborg 2+ goals

41%

Viborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aalborg (draw refunded)

50%

Viborg (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 98 matches

Viborg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg attack 1.28 + Viborg defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Viborg attack 1.38 + Aalborg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aalborg scores more

37%

level

25%

Viborg scores more

38%

Viborg at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Viborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

K. Jørgensen

Aalborg · D

8.3

Match Events

10'

Lars Kramer

41'

Magnus Westergaard

57'

S. Otoa← A. Bruus

57'

M. Bomholt← J. Iredale

59'

Jeppe Grønning

65'

Daniel Anyembe

69'

A. Ementa← Renato Júnior

69'

J. Lonwijk← T. Jørgensen

83'

K. John← O. Ross

83'

Diego Caballo← M. Jiménez

83'

J. Vester← I. Said

83'

C. Nouck← I. Jensen

84'

J. Adedeji← A. Jasson

89'

S. Berger← M. Westergaard

90+1'

Bjarne Pudel

90+1'

Justin Lonwijk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AalborgViborg

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots20

0.44Expected Goals (xG)1.96

0Corners11

10Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots20

2On Target4

5Off Target6

3Blocked10

3Inside Box14

7Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

386Total Passes454

321Accurate Passes397

83%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides2